Two new Breakout Stocks for Week 45 with better than 10% short-term upside potential. The ETF/ETN forecast section now goes out in a separate article.
Following the Daily Momentum Gauges®, the portfolio is up +70.3% YTD despite a record high 24 weeks out 44 weeks this year in negative conditions above the 40 MG level.
This past week 1 stock gained over +10% with peak gains in AEHR +19.4% and both MYMD and INMD gained over 8% for members before profit taking midweek.
The streak of weekly picks gaining over 10% in less than a week of trading days continues to 194 out of 233 trading weeks (83.3%) not counting multiple gainers.
The MDA breakout picks completed 2020 up +73.4% beating the S&P 500 for the 4th consecutive year. Currently delivering a CAGR +47.94% from 2017 and 708.6% compounding return.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value & Momentum Breakouts. Learn More »
1001slide/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Introduction
The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 6 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached over 230 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research.
In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members’ request since 2020, I now generate 4 selections each week, 2 Dow 30 picks, and separate articles for ETF/ETNs and monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks. I offer 10 top models of short and long term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public: Value And Momentum Breakouts For 2021: 10 Models To Beat The S&P 500, Again
Returns from 20 Weeks of Positive Momentum Gauge signals YTD Momentum Gauge® trading signal: Positive signal ahead of Week 45 (Source: VMBreakouts.com) Red weekly color shows how poorly market momentum and investor enthusiasm sustains through the week when the Momentum Gauges® are negative. This is well documented in my published research. Historical Performance Measurements
The MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold returns are at +70.3% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks consistent with the positive Momentum Gauges® signals. Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.
Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now up to 223 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 111 picks over 200%+, 35 picks over 500%+ and 12 picks with over 1,000%+ gains since January 2019: Celsius Holdings ( CELH ) +2,199.4%
Enphase Energy ( ENPH ) +1,620.2%
Intrepid Potash ( IPI ) +1,213.8%
Digital Turbine ( APPS ) +1,163.9%
More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation 2021 YTD Breakout Portfolio Returns
The Breakout Picks are high volatility selections for short-term gains, but with no selections below $2/share, under 100k average daily volume, or less than $100 million market cap. The 2020 MDA Breakout ended the year +73.4% with returns through Week 52. Prior return performance is documented here:
For 2021 the maximal average weekly returns are +10.63% for total 467.5% YTD maximal returns. Using the blind buy/hold approach and not following the Momentum Gauges® is delivering minimal average -0.49% weekly return. The S&P 500 average weekly return is +0.57% YTD. These returns include trading against all the Negative Momentum Gauge® signal warnings which increases your risk of declines, but are conducted without interruption for testing and measurement purposes. Market Momentum Conditions The Momentum Gauges® closed at Negative 31 and Positive 112 in positive conditions above the equilibrium range and with negative values below 40. The green/red arrows show the new early test signal after 3 consecutive declines on the negative gauge values. The blue area shows the region of uncertainty that typically starts a change in signal. The Momentum Gauges® have correctly called every major market direction change since measurements began.(Source: VMBreakouts.com)The S&P 500 Momentum Gauges® of 500 mega/large cap stocks continue positive from September as well as the Weekly Momentum Gauges® based on the broad 7,500+ […]