Happy New Year everyone! I’ve made goals publicly for over ten years because it helps keep me accountable. Making goals also makes the year more exciting and challenging. Hence, here are my goals for 2023.
Once again, I’ve divided the goals into five categories: Health, Wealth, Family, Financial Samurai, and X-Factor . My goal is to achieve 70% of my goals! Health Goals For 2023: Maintenance Mode
Stay the same weight.
Instead of a weight loss goal, my goal is to play tennis or pickleball four times a week on average all year. Better fitness and mental health will naturally come with regular activity.
I will stay the same weight of between 167-168 pounds all of 2023. The ideal weight chart says I should be between 151 – 163 pounds at 5’10”. But screw that! I’m not a teenager any longer. Stay injury free.
At 45, my mind is often stronger than my body. I think I can play five days a week but I really can’t without pain or a heightened risk of injury. Everything from my heels to my hips to my shoulders aches after playing sports.
I will stretch for five minutes before and after every match. A foam roller will be my new best friend. Every off day I will soak in the hot tub . Finally, I will use elastic bands to strengthen my shoulders four times a week.
Getting injured would prevent me from playing with my children and I can’t let that happen. We play “fly” where I pick them up and they pretend to be birds or planes. Then we play “jumpy jump” where I help them jump really high on the sofa. Healthy shoulders and knees are a must for these activities. Wealth Goals For 2023: Flat Is The New Up!
Follow the first rule of financial independence : never lose money.
I think we’ll be lucky (~40% chance) if the S&P 500 closes the year in the 4,000 – 4,250 range. I expect a 60% chance the S&P 500 will go down another 10% at some point in 2023, i.e. <3,500 for S&P 500. Here are the 2023 Wall Street forecasts .
With ~30% of my net worth in public equities, a 10% decline will drag down my net worth by 3%. The Fed seems determined to cause another recession , despite all signs clearly pointing to declining inflation.
I expect the national median home price to decline by about 8% in 2023. This will result in a 4% drag on my net worth given real estate counts for about 50% of my net worth. However, I’ve already priced my real estate portfolio about 10% below market prices. Here are the 2023 housing price forecasts .
Based on the above expectations, my realistic downside scenario is a 7% decline in net worth .
A realistic upside scenario is that stocks close up 5% – 10% to 4,000 – 4,235, resulting in a net worth increase of 1.5% – 3%. Meanwhile, I think the realistic best-case scenario is for housing prices to stay flat. As a result, my best-case realistic upside scenario is a 3% increase in net worth .
Based on the blended assumptions, I expect my net worth to be down about 3% in 2023. As a result, I need to generate enough after-tax income to cover the shortfall.
I should have a 95%+ chance of generating enough online income to make up for the 3% net worth decline without extra effort. If not, I’ll just work harder. There are so many ways to make money online . Generate $400,000 a year in passive income
The rise in interest rates helped boost our passive income by 10% to ~$380,000 in 2022. As interest rates come down and my Treasury bonds mature in 2023, I’ll need to find new ways to generate more passive income.
My hope is that by mid-2023, there will be more private real estate deals at lower valuations and higher yields. If so, I will roll hundreds of thousands of dollars into private real estate funds and deals from my expiring short-term Treasury bonds and buy.
Given there is more risk involved with real estate, I expect a higher rate of return than the 4.2% – 4.7% risk-free from Treasuries. 8-12% returns seem reasonable but are not guaranteed.Going from $380,000 to $400,000 in passive income means a 5.2% increase. I expect CPI to go below 5% by year-end.Once again, cash flow is more important than net worth . It is cash flow that funds your […]
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