At the end of 2020, I made a few predictions for the year ahead. I did pretty well, forecasting Netflix would expand beyond TV and movies, Apple and Amazon would invest more resources into podcasts, and social media sites would try to sell you a lot more goods. I was a little too optimistic about Disney+ and the end of the pandemic, as were a lot of people.
As we enter the first work week of 2022, I am going to pair each prediction with a related question about the year ahead.
It will be a bumpy year for streaming services in the U.S.
New services Disney+, HBO Max, Paramount+, Peacock and Apple TV+ have all added millions of customers over the past couple years thanks to marketing campaigns and splashy shows. Netflix, Amazon and Hulu have continued to grow and remain market leaders.
Yet while the overall number of streaming subscriptions continues to grow, the pace of growth has tempered , at least in the U.S.. Netflix’s growth has slowed to a trickle, and Disney+’s has been unable to sustain its initial pace. Most people in the U.S. already pay for a streaming service (or several), and there are still tens of millions of households that pay for cable or satellite. Streaming’s share of overall viewership in the U.S. has been stagnant for months now.
Streaming wars was always a bit of a misnomer, but we have entered more of a combat portion. The services aren’t just fighting to get people to shift from cable to the internet now. They are competing with one another for attention and share of wallet. That means services will thrive when they have a big new hit, but slow down when they don’t.
Which streaming service will have the most success outside the U.S.?
The solution for slowing growth at home is overseas expansion. Netflix has a huge head start. It ended 2021 with about 140 million customers outside the U.S., which is more customers than any of its biggest rivals have in total, save for maybe Amazon.
All of Netflix’s competitors know they need to invest more resources abroad. Disney+ already has a lot of customers in India, but it will need to hold onto cricket rights to keep them. HBO Max is in the early stages of expanding in Europe and Latin America, while Peacock and Paramount+ have joined forces abroad. Expect to hear these services talk up original series in other languages, as well as partnerships with mobile operators and alternate payment options. It took Netflix years to figure out many foreign markets.
Netflix will add more sports programming – but not a lot of live rights.
We’ve been waiting years for a big tech company to buy the rights to “Monday Night Football” or the NBA Finals. They haven’t bought many major events, though Amazon has begun to experiment. Netflix is the least likely of the tech powers to buy rights to games from a major U.S. sports league given the cost and geographical limitations of those events. But it will explore deals for global rights to an entire sport. Co-founder Reed Hastings has already said the company would consider bidding on the rights Formula One, which become available in much of the world at the end of 2022.
Speaking of Formula One, Netflix will create more programs like “F1: Drive to Survive.” That show made Formula One relevant to a whole new generation of viewers , many of whom lived in places that never cared about the sport (like the U.S). Other sports took notice and are now trying to do the same version. Golf is already doing a show with Netflix, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the NBA explore a show as well.
Will Apple or Amazon snag NBA rights?
The NBA is the next big sports rights package to come to market, and is said to want $8 billion a year across its deals. Most people expect Turner and ESPN to retain their rights, but the NBA could go the way of the NFL and carve off yet another package for Silicon Valley. If the league does, it will try to entice basketball super fan Eddy Cue and Apple to make a bid. Or Amazon, which already has an NFL package. (John Ourand predicted Amazon would buy a stake in the NFL’s media business .)
Spotify will have a new favorite buzzword: creator.
In the first phase of its plan to take over podcasting, Spotify signed up big […]
source A Few Predictions — and Questions — For Hollywood in the New Year
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