MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images We traded Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ: OLLI ) stock several times in the last two years. Let us remind you that niche names like this, discount merchandise reseller type stores, were COVID-19 pandemic winners. The company has had mixed performance in its operations, with some really strong quarters, and others which have been weak. Management has worked to expand operations and open up new shops and attract new customers. However, it does seem like in the near-term, we may have seen peak performance. That said, we have some tough comps vs a strong 2020. There are new and unique challenges such as supply chain issues, labor shortages, and rising transport costs. Moreover, high inflation is weighing on the company’s ability to acquire bulk discount merchandise at good prices, and to sell them to now strapped customers. Food and gas are two major expenses on shoppers and both are seeing record inflation. Make no mistake, Ollie’s discount pricing has worked and it has diligently fought for market share. It is one of the best discount retailers out there. It competes with both the big-box stores and lower end dollar stores with overstock merchandise. Ollie’s is a niche retailer. This niche retailer fits somewhere in between a big box store and dollar store, with closeout bargains that attract deal seeking shoppers.
For a long time the company had been growing comparable sales, revenues were up, and earnings performance was solid. The just reported Q4 was a touch difficult. The company saw lower sales and earnings from a year ago, and while this was expected, it is still tough to see. What is more, inflation has only gotten hotter in the last two months, which does not bode well for the start of the new fiscal year. However, the stock has pulled back so much, we see it as a buy. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Q4 performance
As the pandemic slowed, Ollie’s has continued its operational plan, selectively expanding to new locations, and restructuring existing stores. Management works hard to ensure suppliers have products that will entice its customers. Sometimes, it does not always pan out, items do not move, but Ollie’s does a nice job on its inventory, with minimal advertising expense. As the market corrected recently, OLLI stock has been crushed, but has been looking to put in a bottom. The market priced in a lot of ‘bad news’ and headwinds into shares. We believe the stock is a moderate buy here in the low $40’s, and a good buy in the mid- to high-$30s.
Let us be clear. This discount retailer proved it was a survivor, though we question if the momentum can swing positive. The market does too, which is why the stock is down so far from highs seen a year or so ago. Shares are still down about 60% from 52-week highs. Q4 some year-over-year declines that are notable.
In Q4, OLLI saw net income that fell from a year ago by 31% to $44.7 million from $64.7 million. Net income per diluted share fell to $0.69 on an adjusted basis, which was a beat of $0.03 versus consensus, though down from $0.97 last year.
This beat on earnings came despite a worse-than-expected sales figure. Q4 sales were $501.1 million and missed consensus estimates by $17 million. Net sales actually fell 2.8% year-over-year, despite expectations for slight gains. Before COVID, we had been seeing sales moving at a much slower pace, and then with COVID sales spiked. So, what about the all-important comparable store sales figure? These were down sizably as you can imagine with the sales miss.
The decrease in net sales was driven by a comparable store sales decline of 10.5%, though there were some new stores opened that helped offset this pain. New stores often enjoy elevated traffic levels and a significantly larger average basket. With the economy still hot, and COVID-19 essentially in the rear-view mirror, retail competition is stiff. With those pressures, along with inflation and supply chain issues, we expect this year to be tough. It will still be nice profitable year, but the pressure is on. 2022 numbers will be under pressure
For right now, the growth may be slowing with smaller average baskets, and profit margin pressures. The CEO acknowledged this and stated: During the fourth quarter we exceeded our earnings expectations. We navigated numerous headwinds including unprecedented inflation in merchandise and transportation costs, shipping delays of imported product, and backlogs at our distribution centers. We accomplished this […]
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