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Few companies exemplify how long-term investing can help you retire rich as Apple, which is up, 2,127X over the last 35 years.
The good news is that Apple is still one of the best companies on earth, and is expected to grow 14.5% over time, meaning it can make you rich over time.
The bad news is that Apple is so overvalued that its pricing in the next 5 year’s worth of growth and offering just 0.5% CAGR risk-adjusted expected returns.
GOOG is a 14.2% growth Ultra SWAN with the same fundamental risk but is 15% undervalued and analysts expect 15% annual returns over the next four and five years. GOOG’s risk-adjusted expected returns are 25X better than Apple’s.
CSL is a 15% growing Ultra SWAN dividend champion benefiting from a $112 trillion global infrastructure mega boom. It’s 22% undervalued and offers 21% annual return potential over the next two years, and 16% long-term return potential, 1% more than Apple. CSL’s 5-year risk-adjusted expected returns are 20X better than Apple’s.
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Khosrork/iStock via Getty Images We all dream of retiring in safety and splendor and owning the world’s best blue-chips for the long-term is the easiest way to make this happen. Apple Total Returns Since 1986
Portfolio Visualizer Premium Apple ( AAPL ) is a classic example of this, having delivered remarkable Buffett-like 24% annual returns since 1986.
That means $1,000 invested in Apple 35 years ago is now worth over $2.1 million, or $827,000 adjusted for inflation. Portfolio Visualizer Premium Of course, back in 1986, it wasn’t clear that Apple would become the world’s most valuable company, after nearly going bankrupt and reinventing itself several times. Portfolio Visualizer Premium Along the way to those unfathomable riches, Apple investors had to endure not one, but two 80% crashes, as well as a 57% crash during the Great Recession.
And today Apple is highly overvalued and thus investors must be prepared for another potential long stretch of disappointing returns. AAPL 2024 Consensus Return Potential
FAST Graphs, FactSet Research That’s because, after blockbuster 71% growth in 2021, Apple is expected to grow just 6.4% annually through 2024 and 8.4% annually through 2027.
Even if you personally think that Apple’s 26.5 forward PE is justifiable by its stronger focus on subscription revenue, there is simply no way, other than continued multiple expansion, that Apple can continue delivering the incredible 61% annual returns of the last three years. not without risking the largest crash in its history when the bubble bursts
But I promised to tell you how Apple can help you retire rich, and stay rich in retirement. And there are three reasons it can in fact still do that.
In fact, if you own Apple today, then over the long-term Apple is likely to help you retire in safety and splendor.
So let me show you why Apple is on my correction watchlist, and as close to a “must own” dividend growth blue-chip as exists on Wall Street.
I’ll also show you why Alphabet ( GOOG ) and Carlisle ( CSL ) represent two fast-growing superior blue-chip alternatives to Apple right now. equal in fundamental quality and safety
equal (or better) long-term growth prospects
20 to 25X higher 5-year risk-adjusted expected returns GOOG and CSL are two blue-chips I just bought during the Russian invasion correction, and still represent two rich-retirement blue-chip opportunities that might be just what your portfolio is looking for. Apple Can Make You Rich Because It’s One Of The World’s Best Companies The Dividend King’s overall quality scores are based on a 237 point model that includes: dividend safety balance sheet strength credit ratings credit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk data short and long-term bankruptcy risk accounting and corporate fraud risk profitability and business model growth consensus estimates historical cash flow growth rates historical dividend growth rates historical sales growth rates cost of capital long-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&P, Reuters’/Refinitiv and Just Capital management quality dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality) analyst consensus long-term return potential It actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk. credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of […]
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