Everything depends on the pipeline.
Back in 2019, electric-vehicle (EV) giant Tesla had one big thing in common with the Moderna ( MRNA -3.17% ) of today — and that’s market value. Tesla finished that year with a market value of about $75 billion. Right now, Moderna’s sits at about $70 billion.
Since then, Tesla’s market capitalization has soared more than 1,300% to reach $1.1 trillion. That’s as the EV leader saw vehicle deliveries climb.
Tesla delivered more than 900,000 cars last year. Now the question is whether billion-dollar vaccine-maker Moderna can surpass Tesla’s market value by the end of this decade. Let’s find out. Image source: Getty Images. A 2,800% gain in market value
First, it’s important to note that Tesla’s market value could increase or decrease by 2030. But for the purpose of this article, let’s imagine it settles at its current level. Now let’s turn to Moderna.
This biotech company also saw huge gains in market value in recent years. In fact, from Dec. 31, 2019 to a peak in August 2021, its market value soared more than 2,800% to $195 billion. Since then, it’s retreated about 64%.
The reason for Moderna’s gain is the commercialization of its very first product: the coronavirus vaccine. Investors piled into the stock as Moderna developed the candidate and after the biotech company brought it to market — and reported billions of dollars in revenue and profit.
Moderna continues to report blockbuster figures. The company’s vaccine revenue totaled $18.5 billion last year and Moderna predicts even more this year — at least $21 billion. So why has the company’s stock and market value slipped?
Investors are worried about what’s next for Moderna. Once the pandemic is over, many expect vaccine revenue to decline.
Experts say the coronavirus will stick around. That means we’ll continue to need vaccines. And Moderna has launched a subscription service for countries so they can order doses ahead of time.
Moderna also is working on more specific boosters to target the latest coronavirus variants. And the company has said it will charge more for its vaccine once the trend moves to selling into a private market — directly to pharmacies — rather than the government. Moderna also is developing a combined flu/coronavirus vaccine candidate that could become the annual “go-to” shot for many. Post-pandemic revenue
All of these elements mean Moderna still may generate significant revenue from a coronavirus vaccine or booster post pandemic. But some investors might want to see this evidence for themselves before flocking to the shares right now. Moderna may need a bit of time before its shares and market value climb significantly.
At the same time, we should look at other growth drivers. And Moderna has plenty in the pipeline. The company has 31 active development programs, and 19 are involved in clinical studies.
Moderna launched pivotal trials in recent months for a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate and a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine candidate. These are common viruses that could be devastating for certain individuals. Prevention options are limited today, and each one of these represents a blockbuster opportunity.
Thanks to the coronavirus vaccine, we know that Moderna’s mRNA technology works in humans. The company uses messenger RNA to instruct the body’s cells to produce proteins that can prevent or fight disease.
This method is part of all of Moderna’s product candidates, but doesn’t mean that each candidate will be successful. At least we know the method can be efficacious and safe. Can this happen in eight years?
Now let’s look at our time frame for the market-value gain from today’s level to the level of $1 trillion. The market-value increase would be about 1,300% in a period of eight years. Moderna clearly has shown it can make such gains in market value — and in an even shorter period of time, as I mentioned above. But of course, Moderna had a significant driver for the gains.
For Moderna to surpass Tesla in market value, the biotech will have to bring a new product or products to market that will generate blockbuster revenue. Can this happen by 2030? Considering Moderna’s progress on future coronavirus vaccines/boosters and non-coronavirus pipeline products, it looks likely.
Investors may have to be a bit patient during this lull in Moderna stock’s performance. But if the company meets some of its next goals, the stock may surge again. And Moderna might become the next Tesla when it comes to market value. Should you invest $1,000 in Moderna, Inc. right now? Before you consider Moderna, Inc., you’ll want to hear this.Our […]
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