Bird’s Q4 revenues beat expectations, but investors don’t love its conservative 2022 growth forecast

Bird’s Q4 revenues beat expectations, but investors don’t love its conservative 2022 growth forecast

Shared micromobility company Bird disclosed its 2021 fourth quarter and full year earnings on Tuesday after the bell.

The report was the company’s second public earnings release after finalizing its SPAC deal in November. Since its combination, the company’s value has fallen, mirroring declines seen in other SPAC combinations. Still, the company raised capital and went public, so we now receive regular financial updates regarding its operations.

In the fourth quarter, Bird beat Wall Street revenue expectations, but its guidance fell short of analyst expectations, and could come up short when compared to projections listed its SPAC investor presentation. Let’s dig in. Bird’s financials

Bird’s full year revenue of $205 million exceeded expectations of $193.1 million. That was a win for the company. The e-scooter company’s revenue grew 117% from its 2020 total. Naturally 2020 was a year that heavily impacted all mobility-focused startups, so there’s some nuance to the figure, but it is still a strong result.

In a call, Bird emphasized to TechCrunch that its 2021 revenue result was 9% above its SPAC forecast. Full-year adjusted EBITDA for 2021 was -$67 million, which also beat the original SPAC forecast by 30%. Bird had originally anticipated a $96 million adjusted EBITDA loss in 2021.

The company’s fourth quarter, however, was not as impressive as its full-year results. Bird’s top line in Q4 2021 came to $54 million, an increase from its year-ago result, but a decrease from its sequentially preceding quarter, which saw $65.4 million in revenue. Bird’s Q4 revenue did beat Wall Street estimates of $51.37 million , and despite a quarter-to-quarter revenue decline, gross margin at Bird in Q4 was 15%, up from 13.5% in Q3 of the same year.

Most of Bird’s revenue came from vehicle sharing, but revenue from sales of e-bikes expanded. In 2021, product sales made up about $17.8 million of Bird’s revenue, up from $14.7 million in 2020. While that number doesn’t represent massive growth, Bird did see improved economics in its hardware business. The revenue costs of product sales in 2021 were $17.3 million, compared to $22.7 million in 2020, which means the company is getting better at hardware keeping costs down and efficiencies up.

Part of Bird’s overall decrease in Q4 revenue — when compared to its Q3 2021 metrics — is attributable to average rides per vehicle per day dipping in Q4 compared to its full-year metrics. Bird attributes this decline to seasonality, wherein Q4 and Q1 tend to be a little lighter for key mobility metrics due to poor weather and less tourism. COVID, of course, also affected ridership in Q4.

Bird does expect more market recovery in 2022, with cities across the U.S. shedding mask mandates, and tourism and commuting expected to make a comeback. The company also noted the rise in gas prices due to the war in Ukraine is expected to account for increased ridership as people look to alternative forms of transportation.

Turning to costs, total operating expenses in the fourth quarter at Bird grew sharply to $136.6 million, up from $40.0 million last quarter. Bird attributes this to $82.3 million of non-cash stock-based compensation expenses, which was triggered by its SPAC combination. Many companies report near-term boosts to share-based compensation costs in the wake of public-market debuts.

Gross margin for 2021 was 19% of revenue, and Bird expects that percentage to march forward into the 20s over time. Updated guidance

In the wake of its better-than-expected Q4 2021 revenue result, and lower-than-promised full-year adjusted EBITDA losses, you might be surprised to learn that Bird’s stock is down in after-hours trading. Why the declines? Guidance, it appears.

Bird expects revenue in the first quarter of this year to land between $34 million and $36 million. Investors had estimated $49.0 million for Q1 2022, according to Yahoo Finance averages . For the full year, Bird expects revenues of $350 million, an uninspiring estimate given the company’s previous $401 million target as laid out in its SPAC deck .

Bird forecast its 2022 with flat utilization when compared to its 2021 results, rather than modeling continued recovery from COVID and continued return to work and tourism, the company told TechCrunch. The company also argued that hitting $350 million would still be a healthy 70% YOY growth rate from 2021’s $205 million. (We note here that $401 million in revenue would represent even faster growth!)

Bird says that despite challenges, it’s been profitable by some metrics in each quarter. The question remains, will it be able to maintain a sustainable business and reach long-term, GAAP profitability? Does Bird […]

source Bird’s Q4 revenues beat expectations, but investors don’t love its conservative 2022 growth forecast

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